Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-12 0.114883 0.134448 0.157067 0.185323 0.219915 0.261191 0.314630
2025-10-19 0.091076 0.115470 0.146577 0.189781 0.249235 0.329688 0.449450
2025-10-26 0.074315 0.100855 0.137692 0.193940 0.280203 0.411977 0.637828
2025-11-02 0.059760 0.085948 0.125064 0.190058 0.300201 0.489140 0.862083
2025-11-09 0.047662 0.072017 0.110771 0.180167 0.308979 0.555517 1.115062
2025-11-16 0.040544 0.064293 0.104525 0.182250 0.340924 0.682838 1.592202
2025-11-23 0.034747 0.057551 0.098454 0.183288 0.373069 0.833367 2.279656
2025-11-30 0.030561 0.052760 0.094836 0.188428 0.418182 1.049386 3.437559
2025-12-07 0.026964 0.048330 0.090921 0.192073 0.463591 1.308492 5.202500
2025-12-14 0.023255 0.042974 0.083945 0.186742 0.484708 1.520811 7.277337
2025-12-21 0.019230 0.036281 0.072732 0.167743 0.458575 1.555379 8.592144
2025-12-28 0.017409 0.033831 0.070395 0.171150 0.505599 1.934128 13.515985
2026-01-04 0.016007 0.032105 0.069555 0.179248 0.578211 2.550841 24.109447
2026-01-11 0.014591 0.030093 0.067601 0.183743 0.643854 3.268667 42.802693
2026-01-18 0.013344 0.028250 0.065676 0.187921 0.714795 4.197856 79.865096
2026-01-25 0.011967 0.025862 0.061793 0.184325 0.750545 5.000814 136.119062
2026-02-01 0.010585 0.023243 0.056737 0.174899 0.752353 5.570196 210.511678
2026-02-08 0.009757 0.021879 0.054940 0.177000 0.820868 7.062180 450.058407
2026-02-15 0.008999 0.020571 0.053029 0.178076 0.887861 8.885564 1039.913580
2026-02-22 0.008428 0.019663 0.052128 0.183104 0.989384 11.811028 3227.622726
2026-03-01 0.007882 0.018733 0.050961 0.186678 1.089337 15.531085 12415.936465
2026-03-08 0.007214 0.017367 0.048110 0.181567 1.120314 18.276587 41355.934721
2026-03-15 0.006359 0.015374 0.042835 0.163223 1.025629 17.503956 59757.848108